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Vantage Point: Shifting Tides

In this edition of Vantage Point we revisit key questions from a quarter ago regarding the need for a recession to reduce inflation sustainably, potential inflation rebounds, and the idea of peaked rates. While these themes persist, we've adjusted probabilities for 2024 economic scenarios. Firstly, there is an exploration of global ‘Immaculate Disinflation’ whereby inflation falls steadily back towards target almost everywhere without necessitating a recession.

Secondly, we investigate ‘Unavoidable Recession’ whereby leaving monetary policy too loose for too long during 2021-22 has had inflationary consequences that can only be solved by tightening monetary policy sufficiently to create a (mild) recession. Lastly, we explore ‘International Divergence’ whereby this economic scenario is a combination of the previous two, in which the US undergoes a soft landing of sorts, while Europe and the UK move into recession in early 2024. 


 

 


Il valore degli investimenti può diminuire. Gli investitori potrebbero non recuperare l’importo investito.
 

I gestori sono nominati da BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited (BNYMIM EMEA), BNY Mellon Fund Managers Limited (BNYMFM), BNY Mellon Fund Management (Luxembourg) S.A. (BNY MFML) o dalle società affiliate per svolgere attività di gestione dei portafogli, nell’ambito di contratti per l’erogazione di prodotti e servizi, sottoscritti dai clienti con BNYMIM EMEA, BNY MFML e con i fondi BNY Mellon.


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